How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Dynamo Makhachkala to score 1 or fewer 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Orenburg and 1.0 from Dynamo Makhachkala, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Dynamo Makhachkala come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Dynamo Makhachkala to score 1 or fewer. This is about Dynamo Makhachkala's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 75%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Dynamo Makhachkala have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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