How it turned out
The game finished with 3 goals. Both teams scored. We made Zenit -1 (win by 2+) 72%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Zenit come into this on five straight wins. Rodina Moscow come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Zenit -1 (win by 2+). Zenit are strong enough to win this with a bit to spare (xG 3.4-0.6). The handicap asks them to do it by a clear margin, and on these numbers that is a fair ask.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.52, which works out at about 66 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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