How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Al Ittihad or Draw 79%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Al Ittihad host Al Diriyah at home in a Saudi Pro League clash on 23 October 2026. Ittihad sit fourth in the 18-team table with 20 points from nine games and a +8 goal difference, just two points behind leaders Al Nassr and two ahead of chasing Al Ahli. Diriyah are seventh, on 15 points from ten matches and a neutral goal difference, one point behind Neom SC and level with Al-Ettifaq. Both clubs are only three games away from the European places, so a win for Ittihad would tighten the race at the top while a slip could let the teams above close the gap.
Ittihad’s recent form has been mixed. In their last five outings they have won twice, drawn once and lost twice. The most recent result was a 4-1 away victory over Al-Ettifaq, followed by a 2-1 home defeat to Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai, then a 3-2 loss away at Al Hilal. They recovered with a 1-1 draw away at Al-Shamal and earlier had beaten Al-Faisaly 3-1 on the road. Across those five games Ittihad have scored 11 and let in eight, with four matches producing three or more goals and both sides finding the net in each of those encounters. They are coming into this tie after only three days of rest.
Diriyah have been steadier in their last five. They have recorded two wins, two draws and one loss. Their most recent game was a 1-0 home win over Al Riyadh, preceded by a 1-1 draw with Al-Taawoun at the same venue. Before that they suffered a 3-0 away defeat to Al Nassr, then a goalless home draw with Abha and a 2-1 away win against Al Fateh. In total they have scored four goals and conceded five, keeping two clean sheets while failing to score in two matches. Like Ittihad, Diriyah also had only three days between fixtures, so fatigue could be a factor for both sides.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be open, with both teams usually getting on the scoresheet. The recent patterns suggest a similar story could unfold: Ittihad’s attack has been capable of finding the net regularly, while Diriyah have shown they can keep a clean sheet but also struggle to score. Given Ittihad’s higher average of 1.4 goals compared with Diriyah’s 0.8, and the fact that both sides have been involved in several high-scoring matches, we expect a modestly busy game with at least one goal, likely from the home side.
Our pick is Al Ittihad or a draw at odds of 1.31. The price sits close to our own reading of the match and offers a safe way to back the stronger team without demanding a specific result. Ittihad have a 77 % chance of scoring and a 42 % chance of scoring twice, while Diriyah’s chances are lower at 57 % and 20 % respectively. The pick should work if Ittihad manage at least a point, which is likely given their home advantage and superior goal record. It would go wrong only if Diriyah pull off a clean sheet and score, or if Ittihad’s short turnaround leaves them unable to find the net. With a 79 % chance of success in our view, the price looks good for the risk.
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