How it turned out
We projected about 3.6 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Al Nassr to win 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Al-Faisaly host Al Nassr at home in the Saudi Pro League on 23 October. Al Faisaly sit 15th out of 18 with just seven points from nine games and a –7 goal difference. Al Nassr sit much higher in the table and are clearly the stronger side on the numbers we have. Both clubs can earn points that matter for the season, but Al Faisaly are fighting to stay clear of the bottom three while Al Nassr are looking to keep their push for the top places alive.
Al Faisaly’s last five matches have produced two wins, one draw and two defeats. They drew 2-2 away at Al Shabab, then beat Al Kholood 3-2 at home and followed that with a 2-0 home win over Al-Nahda. The run ended with a 4-3 loss away to Al-Rayyan and a 3-1 defeat at home to Al Ittihad. In those five games they have scored 11 goals and let in 11, keeping only one clean sheet. Four of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them. At home they have won two and lost one in their last three fixtures.
Al Nassr’s recent form is not listed in detail, but the numbers we have show they are expected to score about 2.7 goals per game and to find the net in 93 % of their matches. They also score twice or more in 73 % of games. That suggests they have been finding the back of the net regularly and are likely to create chances throughout the match. Their most recent result, while not given, is implied to be another match where they scored, fitting the pattern of a side that rarely go without a goal.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to be open, with goals on both ends. The statistics point to an encounter where both teams will have chances, but Al Faisaly’s chance of scoring at all is only 60 % and the chance of scoring twice or more drops to 23 %. Al Nassr, by contrast, are far more likely to hit the net and to do so more than once. The pattern suggests a game that will see Al Nassr dominate the scoring while Al Faisaly may find a goal, keeping the match lively.
Our pick is Al Nassr to win. The price of 1.27 is shorter than our own reading of the game, which makes it a good price for a side that should win about 71 % of the time. We expect Al Nassr to score at least two goals and Al Faisaly to struggle to find more than one. For the pick to go wrong Al Faisaly would need to score twice and keep Al Nassr to a single goal, which the numbers say is unlikely. All things considered, backing Al Nassr outright is the straightforward way to go.
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