How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Al Hilal or Draw 66%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Al Qadsiah and 1.7 from Al Hilal, so Al Hilal come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Al Qadsiah come into this on two straight wins. Al Hilal come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Al Hilal or Draw. This covers Al Hilal or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last four meetings are split 1-1, with two drawn.
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