How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 74%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Al Khaleej and 2.6 from Al Hilal, so Al Hilal come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 3.5 goals (xG 0.9-2.6) and it takes five to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 76%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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