What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Al Khaleej and 2.6 from Al Hilal, so Al Hilal come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Al Khaleej come into this on two straight draws. Al Hilal come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 3.5 goals (xG 0.9-2.6) and it takes five to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 76%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
One end-to-end spell, or a defensive mistake, and the goals can pile up before either side settles. We make it about 76% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.