What to expect
We expect about 2.3 goals from Al Nassr and 0.9 from Al Taawoun, so Al Nassr come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Al Nassr to win. Al Nassr are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-0.9), and we make them about 70% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Al Taawoun only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 70%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
