How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from Al Nassr and 0.9 from Al Taawoun, so Al Nassr come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.2 goals (xG 2.2-0.9), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 79%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
