How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Al Ahli to win 68%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Al Kholood and 2.3 from Al Ahli, so Al Ahli come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Al Ahli to win. Al Ahli shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-2.2), and we make them about 70% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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