How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Al Kholood to win 38%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Al Riyadh and 1.5 from Al Kholood, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Al Kholood to win. Al Kholood shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.5), and we make them about 40% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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