What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Al Riyadh and 1.5 from Al Kholood, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Al Kholood to win. Al Kholood shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.5), and we make them about 39% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.25, which works out at about 44 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Al Riyadh have won one of their last three.
✓Al Kholood are unbeaten in their last three — two wins and one draw.
