How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 59%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even but a little tilted toward Hibernian. Our goal expectations are 1.3 for Dundee and 1.5 for Hibernian, so both sides are likely to find the net. The match should have some space for attacks, not a cagey defensive slog. Expect chances at both ends rather than one side shutting out the other.
Recent form shows Hibernian have struggled. In their last five league outings they have not won a single game, drawing two and losing three. Dundee’s recent results are not listed, so we can only rely on the goal averages. The pattern of Hibernian’s recent matches suggests they are vulnerable to conceding, which lines up with the idea of both sides scoring.
We pick both teams to score. The price of 1.67 matches our view of the game. With each side averaging around a goal and a half, there is a solid chance the ball will hit the net on both sides. Our own estimate puts the likelihood at about 59 out of 100, so the price feels right for the risk.
The pick could go wrong if the game becomes very tight and one side dominates possession without breaking the deadlock. A strong defensive display from either team would also stop both from scoring. We still feel fairly confident in our view, but we recognise a shut-out would be the main way it fails.
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