How it turned out
We projected about 3.7 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.8 goals from Celtic and 0.9 from Falkirk, so Celtic come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Celtic come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 3.7 goals (xG 2.8-0.9) and it takes five to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 77%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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