How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Dundee (Draw No Bet) 65%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
The game looks a little tilted towards Dundee. The goal expectations are 1.7 for Dundee and 1.2 for St Johnstone, so we expect a modestly open contest but with Dundee having the edge. It should not be a defensive slog; both sides are likely to push for chances.
Recent numbers give a clear picture. Dundee’s expected tally is higher than St Johnstone’s, and the overall expectation of almost three goals suggests both teams have been finding the net. The pattern points to Dundee being the better side in this encounter.
We pick Dundee on a draw-no-bet basis. The price of 1.87 is longer than what we feel the game deserves, so it looks attractive. Our own view gives Dundee a 65 % chance of avoiding defeat, and the draw-no-bet option removes the risk of a level result.
The pick could go wrong if the match turns very tight and St Johnstone manages to keep a clean sheet while scoring. A defensive stand from the visitors would be enough to beat us. We still feel fairly confident, but we are not absolute – a single slip could swing the result.
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