How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Kilmarnock to score 1 or fewer 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Kilmarnock and 2.1 from Hearts, so Hearts come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Kilmarnock to score 1 or fewer. This is about Kilmarnock's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.1 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 74%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Hearts have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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