How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Kilmarnock and 1.4 from Motherwell, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Motherwell come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Kilmarnock to score. This is about Kilmarnock's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.3 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 72%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Motherwell have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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