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Football/Scottish Premiership/Kilmarnock v Motherwell
Scottish Premiership · Rugby Park

Kilmarnock v Motherwell prediction

Kilmarnock crestKilmarnockLLDWD
v
Motherwell crestMotherwellWLWLL

What to expect

We expect about 1.3 goals from Kilmarnock and 1.7 from Motherwell, so Motherwell come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Motherwell come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.3-1.7), and we make both teams to score about 56%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.

We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.62, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.

What the numbers say
Kilmarnock have won one of their last five.
Motherwell have won two of their last five.
Four of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.

Recent meetings

24 Jan 2026Motherwell 4 - 0 Kilmarnock
22 Nov 2025Kilmarnock 1 - 3 Motherwell
30 Aug 2025Motherwell 2 - 2 Kilmarnock
14 May 2025Motherwell 3 - 0 Kilmarnock
5 Apr 2025Kilmarnock 2 - 0 Motherwell
Motherwell have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.

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