How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 5. We made FK Radnički 1923 to win 49%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from FK Radnički 1923 and 0.8 from Mladost Lučani, so FK Radnički 1923 come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: FK Radnički 1923 to win. FK Radnički 1923 are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-0.8), and we make them about 51% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 49 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.57, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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