How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made OFK Beograd to win 34%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Radnički Niš and 1.3 from OFK Beograd, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: OFK Beograd to win. OFK Beograd shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.3), and we make them about 36% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 34 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.25, which works out at about 31 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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