How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 0. We made FK Crvena Zvezda to win 79%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
FK Radnik Surdulica host FK Crvena Zvezda at home in the Serbia Super Liga on 10 September 2026. Radnik sit sixth out of fourteen with eleven points from seven games and a goal difference of minus one. They are level on points with the team just above them, FK Radnički 1923, and also level with the side below, Novi Pazar. Crvena Zvezda sit on top of the table with eighteen points from six matches and a goal difference of plus sixteen, just ahead of Vojvodina. The leaders are looking to extend their lead while the hosts will try to climb out of the middle of the table. Both teams have similar points gaps to the teams around them, so a win could shift the standings noticeably.
Radnik’s recent form has been mixed. In their last three league games they have not recorded a win, but the exact scores are not listed, so we can only say the run has not added many points to their tally. Their position after seven games shows they have struggled to turn draws into victories and have a negative goal difference. The lack of recent success means they will be under pressure to produce something against the league leaders.
Crvena Zvezda arrive on a superb run. In their last eight matches, seven have been wins and one a draw, with no defeats. The most recent results, newest first, are a 2-1 win over Partizan Beograd at home, a 2-0 victory at FK Zemun, a 1-0 win away at Lille, a 1-1 draw with Celta Vigo at home, a 1-0 win away at Malmo FF and a 1-0 win away at Sturm Graz. The last three games have all been wins, and the last four away fixtures have all been victories. In those eight games they have scored ten goals, conceded only two, kept six clean sheets and have only one game with three or more goals. They played just four days ago, so they are coming in on a short turnaround but with confidence.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to have chances for both sides, and the numbers we expect for this match – about 0.8 goals for Radnik and 2.4 for Crvena Zvezda – suggest a similar open encounter. The leaders are expected to create more chances, but Radnik will have the support of their home crowd and will try to keep it close.
Our pick is FK Crvena Zvezda to win. The price of 1.27 matches our view of the game. We think there is roughly an 80 % chance they will come out on top. The numbers show they are the stronger side and they have been scoring and defending well on the road. For the pick to go wrong, Radnik would need to find a way to break down a defence that has kept six clean sheets in the last eight games, and they would have to score at least two goals while keeping the visitors from scoring. If that does not happen, the leaders should take all three points.
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