What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from FK Radnik Surdulica and 2.4 from FK Crvena Zvezda, so FK Crvena Zvezda come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
FK Crvena Zvezda come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FK Crvena Zvezda to win. FK Crvena Zvezda shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-2.4), and we make them about 80% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.25, which works out at about 80 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
