What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Novi Pazar and 1.3 from Železničar Pančevo, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Železničar Pančevo to win. Železničar Pančevo shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.3), and we make them about 39% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.75, which works out at about 36 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Novi Pazar to spoil this. We only make this about 39%, so it's far from a lock.
