How it turned out
We projected about 3.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made FK Crvena Zvezda to win 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.7 goals from FK Crvena Zvezda and 1.1 from Partizan Beograd, so FK Crvena Zvezda come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FK Crvena Zvezda to win. FK Crvena Zvezda are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.7-1.1), and we make them about 75% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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