How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 8. Both teams scored. We made OFK Beograd to win 38%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from OFK Beograd and 1.2 from FK Radnički 1923, so OFK Beograd come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: OFK Beograd to win. OFK Beograd are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.2), and we make them about 40% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.85, which works out at about 35 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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