What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Cagliari and 2.1 from Inter, so Inter come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Cagliari come into this on four straight wins. Inter come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Inter to win. Inter shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-2.1), and we make them about 72% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.51, which works out at about 66 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Cagliari only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty.
