How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Inter to win 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Cagliari and 2.1 from Inter, so Inter come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Cagliari come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Inter to win. Inter shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-2.1), and we make them about 72% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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