What to expect
We expect about 0.7 goals from Lecce and 1.5 from Roma, so Roma come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Roma to win. Roma shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-1.5), and we make them about 62% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.77, which works out at about 56 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Lecce to spoil this. At around 62% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
