Como v Venezia prediction

What to expect

Como host Venezia in Serie A on 1 November 2026. Como sit fifth in the table with 20 points from nine games and a +9 goal difference. They are just one point behind Milan and three ahead of Frosinone. Venezia are down at the bottom, 20th with three points and a –13 goal difference, two points behind Udinese. The two clubs are far apart in the standings, but the numbers suggest an open game with chances at both ends. The price of 1.31 matches our reading of the contest.

Como have been in good form. In their last eight matches they have won five, drawn one and lost two. The most recent results are a 3-1 win away at Torino, a 2-0 victory at home over Sassuolo, a 4-1 home win over Manchester United and a 3-1 away win at Fiorentina. Before that they fell 3-2 to Feyenoord away and shared a 0-0 draw with Roma at home. Those eight games produced 16 goals for Como and nine against, with two clean sheets and two games where they failed to score. Their last four fixtures have all been wins, and at home they have three wins and one draw in that span. They played five days ago.

Venezia have struggled badly. In their last eight outings they have managed only one win and have lost seven. Their recent results are a 2-0 defeat at home to Inter, a 1-0 loss away to Genoa, a 1-0 win at home over Napoli, a 3-1 loss away to Atalanta, a 2-0 loss at home to Lazio and a 4-2 defeat at home to Fiorentina. The side have scored six goals and let in 17 in those games, keeping just one clean sheet while failing to find the net in four matches. Their last four away games have all ended in defeat. They played only four days ago, so fatigue could be a factor.

The two clubs have met five times before. Como have won once, Venezia twice and two games have ended in draws. Those meetings have produced an average of 3.4 goals per game, indicating that both sides can find the net. The most recent encounter was a 1-1 draw on 8 March 2025. Given Como’s stronger recent run and Venezia’s poor form, the upcoming match is likely to follow the pattern of a goal-rich contest, with the home side pressing for more than a single goal.

We pick Como to win. Our expectation is that Como will score around 2.3 goals while Venezia manage less than one. The chance of Como scoring at all is very high, and the chance they score twice or more is also strong. The price of 1.31 sits close to our own view, and we think there is about a 78 % chance this result will happen. For our pick to go wrong Venezia would need to find a rare clean-sheet win or a draw, which seems unlikely given their recent run of defeats and low scoring rate.