What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Lazio and 0.9 from Cagliari, so Lazio come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Lazio come into this on four straight wins. Cagliari come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Lazio to win. Lazio are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.9), and we make them about 66% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Lazio have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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