What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Fiorentina and 1.1 from Frosinone, so Fiorentina come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Fiorentina to win. Fiorentina are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.1), and we make them about 62% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.69, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Frosinone to spoil this. We make it about 62%: a lean, not a lock.
