How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Under 2.5 goals 50%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Fiorentina and 1.0 from Frosinone, so Fiorentina come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.3 goals in total (xG 1.4-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 52%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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