What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Milan and 0.8 from Venezia, so Milan come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Milan come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Milan to win. Milan are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.8), and we make them about 72% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Venezia to spoil this. We make it about 72% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
