Genoa v Como: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 66%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 0.9 goals from Genoa and 1.5 from Como, so Como come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Genoa come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.4 goals (xG 0.9-1.5), and two is enough to land it, landing about 68% of the time on these numbers.

We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.

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