What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Monza and 1.9 from Atalanta, so Atalanta come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Monza come into this on three straight defeats. Atalanta come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Atalanta to win. Atalanta shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.9), and we make them about 58% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.11, which works out at about 47 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Atalanta have won five of the last five meetings.
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