How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Over 1.5 goals 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Roma and 0.8 from Fiorentina, so Roma come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Roma come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.5 goals (xG 1.7-0.8), and two is enough to land it, landing about 74% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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