What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Venezia and 0.8 from Lecce, so Venezia come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Draw. There is very little between these two (xG 1.2-0.8), and a share of the spoils is a real possibility at around 38%. When sides are this evenly matched, the draw is worth respecting.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.24, which works out at about 31 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Two-way cover still leaves one result that beats you, and tight games can turn on a single mistake. We only make this about 38%, so it's far from a lock.
