How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Ascoli to win 48%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Ascoli and 0.9 from Benevento, so Ascoli come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Ascoli to win. Ascoli are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-0.9), and we make them about 50% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 48 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.30, which works out at about 43 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
The last four meetings are split 1-1, with two drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
