How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Over 1.5 goals 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Sudtirol and 1.4 from Catanzaro, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Catanzaro come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.8 goals between the two (xG 1.4-1.4), landing about 77% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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