How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Ascoli and 0.9 from Carrarese, so Ascoli come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Ascoli come into this on two straight wins. Carrarese come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.6 goals (xG 1.7-0.9), and two is enough to land it, landing about 73% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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