What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Ascoli and 0.9 from Carrarese, so Ascoli come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Carrarese come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.6 goals (xG 1.7-0.9), and two is enough to land it, landing about 73% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
An early goal can kill the tempo just as easily as spark it, and a quiet second half leaves this short.
