How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals; the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Under 2.5 goals 66%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Sampdoria and 0.9 from Juve Stabia, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 1.9 goals in total (xG 1.0-0.9), keeping it under more often than not (about 68%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.57, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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