How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Under 2.5 goals 56%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Padova and 1.0 from Verona, so Padova come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Padova come into this on three straight wins. Verona come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.4 goals in total (xG 1.4-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 58%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.60, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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