What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Cremonese and 1.0 from Modena, so Cremonese come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.3 goals in total (xG 1.3-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 59%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.53, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out. The price is shorter than our own read of about 59%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
