What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Sampdoria and 1.1 from Arezzo, so Sampdoria come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Sampdoria or Draw. This covers Sampdoria or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.21, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Sampdoria have won one of their last five.
✓Arezzo have won one of their last five.
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