How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Spartak Trnava (Draw No Bet) 64%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Spartak Trnava and 1.2 from Žilina, so Spartak Trnava come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Spartak Trnava come into this on two straight wins. Žilina come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Spartak Trnava (Draw No Bet). Spartak Trnava are favoured here (xG 1.7-1.2), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Spartak Trnava defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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