How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Trenčín or Draw 72%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Trenčín and 1.3 from Dukla Banská Bystrica, so Trenčín come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Trenčín come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Trenčín or Draw. This covers Trenčín or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Trenčín have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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