How it turned out
We projected about 3.6 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Zeleziarne Podbrezová to win 45%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Zeleziarne Podbrezová and 1.6 from FC Košice, so Zeleziarne Podbrezová come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Zeleziarne Podbrezová to win. Zeleziarne Podbrezová are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.6), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.82, which works out at about 55 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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