How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Žilina to win 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.4 goals from Žilina and 1.1 from Trenčín, so Žilina come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Trenčín come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Žilina to win. Žilina are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-1.1), and we make them about 69% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Žilina have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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