How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Zemplín Michalovce to win 52%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Zemplín Michalovce and 1.3 from Dukla Banská Bystrica, so Zemplín Michalovce come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Zemplín Michalovce to win. Zemplín Michalovce are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.3), and we make them about 53% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 52 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.73, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Zemplín Michalovce have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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