How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Maribor to win 60%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Nafta and 1.9 from Maribor, so Maribor come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Maribor come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Maribor to win. Maribor shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.9), and we make them about 61% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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