What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Nk Brinje Grosuplje and 2.3 from NK Celje, so NK Celje come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: NK Celje to win. NK Celje shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-2.3), and we make them about 70% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.68, which works out at about 60 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Nk Brinje Grosuplje to spoil this. At around 70% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.