How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made NK Celje (Draw No Bet) 79%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Nk Brinje Grosuplje and 2.3 from NK Celje, so NK Celje come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: NK Celje (Draw No Bet). NK Celje are favoured here (xG 1.1-2.3), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a NK Celje defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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