How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 0. We made NK Bravo or Draw 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Nk Brinje Grosuplje host NK Bravo in the Slovenia Prva Liga on 29 October. The home side sit ninth of ten, with 11 points from 12 games and a –10 goal difference, barely above the relegation line. One point separates them from Mura above and three points from Radomlje below. Bravo sit comfortably in fourth place with 19 points and a +1 goal difference, level on points with Olimpija Ljubljana just above them and only one point clear of Nafta below. Both clubs are looking for points, but the stakes differ: Grosuplje fight to stay out of the drop zone, while Bravo aim to keep pressure on the leaders.
Grosuplje’s recent form has been poor. In their last eight matches they have won two and lost six, with no draws. The most recent results are a 5-0 loss away to Koper, a 2-1 defeat at home to Maribor, a 2-1 home win over Radomlje, a 2-1 home loss to Nafta, a 3-0 away loss to Olimpija Ljubljana and a 4-1 home victory over Celje. That run has produced 11 goals for and 20 against, with two games where they failed to score. Every match has seen three or more goals, and both sides have scored in six of those games. They come into this fixture on two straight defeats, the last of which was 11 days ago.
Bravo have been more balanced in their last eight outings, recording three wins, three draws and two defeats. Their recent scores are a 2-2 home draw with Radomlje, a 1-0 away loss to Nafta, a 2-1 home win over Olimpija Ljubljana, a 2-1 home win over Celje, a 0-0 away draw with Aluminij and a 2-0 home victory over Mura. In their last four road games they have not won, drawing twice and losing twice. Across the eight matches they have scored nine and let in eight, keeping three clean sheets while also failing to find the net in three games. Their last game was 12 days ago, a 2-2 draw that showed they can both score and concede.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have been open and produced several goals, with both sides often finding the net. The pattern fits the current expectations: Grosuplje average 1.3 goals per game and Bravo 1.7, suggesting an attacking encounter. The statistics show a high chance of both teams scoring – 68 % for Grosuplje and 83 % for Bravo – and a decent likelihood of each side scoring twice or more. We expect a game with chances at both ends and several goals overall.
Our pick is NK Bravo or the draw. The price of 1.41 is longer than what we feel the game is worth, giving us a safety net if the match ends level. We think Bravo have the edge, but Grosuplje’s need to pick up points means they will push forward. If Grosuplje manage to hold a clean sheet or Bravo fail to score, the pick could go wrong. Otherwise, the odds of our selection succeeding sit at about 77 % in our view.
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