Nafta v Aluminij: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Nafta or Draw 69%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Nafta host Aluminij at their home ground in the Slovenia Prva Liga on 28 October 2026. Nafta sit fifth in the ten-team table with 17 points from twelve matches and a +2 goal difference. They are just one point behind Olimpija Ljubljana in fourth place and one point ahead of NK Celje in sixth. Aluminij are seventh with 13 points and a +3 goal difference, sitting in the European-qualification spots. A win for Nafta would pull them level with Celje and keep the pressure on Olimpija, while a draw would still leave them a point clear of the team below. For Aluminij a victory would lift them to fifth and push them into the top half of the table.

Nafta’s recent form has been mixed. In their last four games they have won two, drawn one and lost one. The most recent result was a 0-0 draw away at Mura. Before that they beat NK Bravo 1-0 at home, then suffered a 2-0 defeat away to Koper, and earlier they won 2-1 away at Nk Brinje Grosuplje. Over those four matches Nafta have scored three goals and let in three. They kept two clean sheets, failed to find the net in two games and have been involved in only one match with three or more goals, a game where both sides scored.

Aluminij have not been as steady. Their last four outings produced one win, one draw and two defeats. The latest was a 1-0 loss at home to Olimpija Ljubljana, followed by another 1-0 defeat away to NK Celje. Prior to that they drew 2-2 away at Maribor and before that enjoyed a 6-1 away win over Mura. In this run they have scored eight goals and conceded five. They have been shut out in two of those four games and have featured in two high-scoring encounters, both of which saw goals from each side. Their three most recent road games have given them a win, a draw and a loss.

When the two sides have met before the games have tended to be tight affairs with both teams able to find the net. The pattern suggests a contest where a single goal could decide the outcome, but where both sides are likely to score at least once. Given Nafta’s slightly better home record and Aluminij’s recent defensive lapses, we expect a modest number of goals – around three in total – with each team having a good chance of scoring.

We back Nafta or the draw at 1.40. The price matches our view of a close game where Nafta have the edge but are not guaranteed to win. The odds look good for a safe bet that covers the most likely outcomes. For our pick to fail, Nafta would have to lose outright, which would require them to be shut out while Aluminij score at least once. That scenario feels less likely given the recent form and the numbers we have.