How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Mamelodi Sundowns FC to win 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Mamelodi Sundowns FC and 0.5 from Durban City, so Mamelodi Sundowns FC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Mamelodi Sundowns FC to win. Mamelodi Sundowns FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-0.5), and we make them about 74% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.28, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Mamelodi Sundowns FC have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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