How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Orlando Pirates to win 62%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Orlando Pirates and 0.6 from Kaizer Chiefs, so Orlando Pirates come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Orlando Pirates come into this on four straight wins. Kaizer Chiefs come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Orlando Pirates to win. Orlando Pirates are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.6), and we make them about 64% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 62 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.70, which works out at about 59 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Orlando Pirates have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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