How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Siwelele to win 36%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Siwelele and 0.9 from Lamontville Golden Arrows, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Siwelele to win. Siwelele are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.1-0.9), and we make them about 37% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.65, which works out at about 38 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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