How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Buyuksehyr to win 59%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Buyuksehyr and 0.9 from Genclerbirligi, so Buyuksehyr come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Buyuksehyr come into this on three straight defeats. Genclerbirligi come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Buyuksehyr to win. Buyuksehyr are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.9), and we make them about 60% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last two meetings are split 1-1, with no drawn.
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